The selloff of high-flying technology stocks
this week was overdue and probably not quite over as investors cash
in on phenomenal 1999 gains in the 2000 tax year, experts say.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was down 73.45 at 3804.09 near midday on Thursday. The index had reversed course Wednesday, halting a two-day slide at 10 percent. Analysts stressed that the brief selloff was a small price to pay for the 50 percent gain of the
past two months or the 85 percent gain for all of 1999.
In fact, rather than the fears of rising interest rates widely
blamed for the sudden downturn, the sheer size of 1999's gains may
have been the driving force behind the post New Year's drop, many
analysts said.
With such huge profits tucked away in stocks, many investors
were waiting to sell after Dec. 31 so they could delay paying taxes
on those gains until April 2001.
While most experts agree that there's plenty of excess that can
be wrung from technology stocks, they also stand by the main
premise behind 1999's stock swell that even though most Internet
companies continue to lose money, all companies will eventually
prosper from the rapid spread of the Internet.
The main question Wednesday wasn't why, but how long and how far
stocks might drop before resuming the rally of the past five years.
The selloff didn't stop Goldman Sachs on Tuesday from issuing a
list of stocks the investment firm expects to rise at least 35
percent this year. More than a third of the 85 names on that list
were Internet-related, including America Online, the leading Web
service, and Cisco Systems, the biggest manufacturer of Internet
equipment.
"The Internet is the most important business phenomenon in our
lifetime," said Byron Wien, the U.S. investment strategist at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "I still believe that, but many stock
prices were suggesting a profit reality that was pretty hard to
achieve."