America Online Inc. (AOL.N) faced mounting selling pressure on Wednesday as investors of all types
headed for the exits amid concerns that the Internet services
company's proposed mega-merger with Time Warner Inc. (TWX.N)
spelled the end of AOL's rapid growth.
While most Wall Street analysts have rallied around the
combination of the world's largest Internet services company and
top media conglomerate to remake the way people communicate and
are entertained, they have also cautioned that investors must
embrace more conservative measures of stock valuation.
"Everybody is bailing out," said one New York Stock
Exchange trader in the stock. "The value guys, retail, the big
media investors plus the (arbitrageurs) are all over it. I'm
just seeing across-the-board selling," he said.
Shares of AOL fell another 4-7/8 to close at 60-1/8, near
its session lows, extending a three-day slide from more than 72,
as more than 46 million shares changed hands on the New York
Stock Exchange.
Time Warner, whose value is tied to that of AOL shares under
the proposed deal, dropped 5-1/2 to 79-1/4, down 20 from its
peak on Monday after the deal was announced.
The value of the merger to Time Warner shareholders fell to
$135 billion, down from a high above $190 billion in the
enthusiasm that greeted the deal when it was first announced
early Monday.
"I couldn't think of a worse scenario for this deal," the
trader said. "The only thing that can stop the slide is if they
pull the bid."
But PaineWebber analyst James Preissler characterized the
selling pressure as short term, stemming from the flight of
momentum investors from the stock amid fear the merger could
slow AOL's historic growth rates and meteoric share-price gains.
"AOL has a good base of long-term owners who are holding it
for long term," said the PaineWebber analyst, who continues to
recommend the stock as a "buy" and calls it his "Best Pick."
America Online counts more than 2 million shareholders among
its investment base, many of whom were drawn to the stock during
the past year during its explosive rise. Of the roughly 2.58
billion shares, just over 46 percent of the stock is held by
institutional holders, with the rest of it in individual or
so-called "retail" hands, according to First Call/Thomson
Financial data.
Preissler said America Online's earnings report next
Wednesday could serve as a near-term catalyst for the stock.
"The earnings release will again remind investors how big and
powerful AOL is, even as stand-alone company," he said.
AOL's share price decline and a drop in the price of
rival Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO.O) despite Tuesday's solid earnings
report and the declaration of a two-for-one stock split cast
a shadow over the Internet stock sector generally on Wednesday.
Yahoo shares were off 33 at 364-6/16, the second day of
sharp declines, on the Nasdaq stock market.
"The only positive is that all the Internets are getting
knocked around so it may take some of the air out of the
bubble," the AOL trader said, referring to a common concern
heard on Wall Street about the sector's sky-high valuations.
Preissler said Internet investors are faced with having to
value the AOL-Time Warner deal by a set of investment measures
favored by traditional media shareholders, like cash flow,
rather than simply focusing on potential revenue growth.
"It begs the question: If investors are forced to start
evaluating these other metrics like cash flow, subscribers,
earnings do they get concerned looking at some of these other
Internet companies in the sector at large?" he said.
Wall Street experts have said the stock activity did not
indicate skepticism about the deal's prospects for completion,
but instead represented the realization that a flood of new
shares would be issued as the top Internet service provider
acquires a traditional and slower-growing media group.
On Tuesday, Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget warned that
America Online's share price could sink as low as 55 as
investors digest the terms of the deal and what it means for AOL
stock during the year it takes the deal to close, as well as its
long-term growth rate when blended with Time Warner.
The deal, announced early on Monday, is expected to
transform the media and technology worlds, uniting Time Warner's
stable of assets that include Sports Illustrated, Looney Tunes
and CNN with the powerhouse company that has brought the
Internet into households around the world.
It also is expected to trigger a wave of similar
transactions linking traditional media companies with their
cyberspace counterparts.