Global demand for crude oil fell last month, and
OPEC's effort to shore up oil prices threatens to choke off growth
in an already fragile world economy, a respected industry survey
said Friday.
Oil inventories in importing nations have risen but are still
low, contributing to market instability and volatile prices, the
International Energy Agency reported.
The IEA prepared its monthly oil report before the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced Wednesday that it would
cut its oil output by 5 percent, or 1.5 million barrels a day. OPEC
has defended its production cut by saying that an economic slowdown
creates the risk that crude prices might collapse.
"It is one thing to raise prices in a booming economy, (but) it
is another to do so in a period of economic slowdown," the IEA
said.
The IEA is the energy arm of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, which represents the interests of the
world's richest countries.
It generally argues for keeping oil prices cheap and supplies
plentiful, and it criticized OPEC on Thursday for the cartel's
decision to curtail output for the first time since March 1999.
Crude prices rose Friday, as oil markets digested the
implications of OPEC's production cut. Contracts of light, sweet
crude for February delivery rose 72 cents to $31.10 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
In London, March contracts of Europe's benchmark Brent crude
increased 80 cents to $26.42 a barrel.
OPEC members meeting this week in Vienna, Austria, said they
would pump more oil to meet any unforeseen shortfall in supply.
However, some energy analysts predicted that crude prices might
increase to as much as $40 before OPEC agrees to bring additional
crude to market.
In an unusually pointed remark, the agency criticized OPEC
officials for making what it said were unhelpful public statements
about conditions in oil markets.
"Oft-repeated statements by unnamed officials generate
uncertainty, fuel speculative pressure and thereby feed
volatility," it said. "Maybe we should all try to lower the
rhetoric."
In its report Friday, the IEA also unexpectedly revised its
forecasts of oil demand downward.
Demand for the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter
of this year is 77.34 million barrels a day, it said, down 350,000
barrels from its forecast in last month's report.
The agency now expects demand for all of 2001 to average 77.3
million barrels a day, 280,000 barrels less than it predicted in
November.
"The global economy is in a more precarious position this year
than last. So, therefore, is oil demand," it said.
Global crude production averaged 77.72 million barrels a day in
December, down 1.34 million barrels a day from in November. The
decrease resulted mainly from a plunge in output from OPEC member
Iraq, which slashed its exports last month due to a dispute over
pricing with the United Nations. The world body regulates all Iraqi
exports.
OPEC's actual output slipped to 27.86 million barrels a day in
December, down from 29.54 million barrels the month before. OPEC's
11 members account for almost two-fifths of the world's oil
supplies.
Crude inventories grew by 1 percent in November. While this
trend is positive, inventory levels are still low overall, the IEA
said.