A barrage of vibrant fourth-quarter
earnings are expected this week, but Wall Street analysts say
the good corporate news may be overshadowed by worries about
higher energy prices and interest rates.
Nearly half the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones
industrial average report fourth-quarter results this week as
well as scores of other companies, including many from the oil,
chemical and the telecommunications industry.
Wall Street has forecast overall fourth-quarter earnings
growth of roughly 17 percent for the 500 companies in the
Standard & Poor's 500 index, down a bit from a third-quarter
peak of 22.7 percent.
With one-third of the earnings season over, I/B/E/S
International said Corporate America is surprising the Street
with even higher profits. At this point, 67 percent of the
reports from S&P; 500 companies have beaten the conventional
wisdom, "well above" the average in the past several quarter,
I/B/E/S analyst Joseph Abbott said in a report.
The bulk of the 14 Dow companies reporting this week are
expected to show growth. Big gains are forecast from Exxon Mobil
Corp., American Express Co., Eastman Kodak Co., Procter & Gamble Co., Coca-Cola Co., and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing Co.
However, AT&T; Corp. and chemicals giant DuPont Co.
are expected to show lighter profits per share compared
with the year-ago period.
Investors will pick over the earnings report from Compaq
Computer Corp., the world's largest personal computer
maker. Many institutional investors have repurchased the stock,
looking for a turnaround after a huge slide due to business
turmoil and a management shake-up in the spring.
Bear Stearns has said it wants to see the new, untested
management team drive down expenses and stir up revenue growth.
Beyond the earnings fireworks will be the market's response to
developments in interest rates and energy prices. The yield on
the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond closed the week at 6.70 percent,
just shy of the two-year high of 6.75 percent mark last week.
The bond market is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise rates
by at least 50 basis points, or a half percent, by April.
Investors are concerned stocks, which ignored the jump in
the long bond yield from roughly 6 percent to 6.75 percent since
November, could be vulnerable if rates go even higher. So there
will be a heavy focus on events that may give clues on the
outcome of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meeting
on Feb. 1 and 2.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is due to testify on Tuesday in
front of the Senate.
Also due out this week: the employment cost index, said to
be watched closely by Greenspan; durable goods orders for
December, on big-ticket items like airplanes and washing
machines; and estimates for the nation's gross domestic product
and inflation in the fourth quarter.
Charles Payne, an analyst at Wall Street Strategies, said he
was looking most closely at the employment cost index.
"We want to see how much the tight labor market pool is
affecting corporate America. So that's going to be the most
significant thing," as well as earnings, Payne said.
Another looming concern could be rising energy prices. Oil
prices raced to nine-year highs on Friday, sparked by talk that
OPEC countries will continue to keep supplies in check and a
cold snap in the United States.