President Clinton's State of the Union
address on Thursday should be neutral for U.S. financial
markets, but analysts cautioned its litany of proposed
expenditures and tax cuts showed lawmakers might find it hard to
curb spending amid huge federal budget surpluses.
"A lot of the initiatives are relatively small in size and
probably very few of them are going to be passed by a Republican
Congress," said David Jones, chief economist at investment firm
Aubrey G. Lanston & Co.
But, he added, "the concept of a budget cap on
discretionary spending is gone and that's something that will
increasingly bother (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan in
his fourth term."
In the final State of the Union speech of his eight-year
presidency, Clinton proposed paying down the national debt in 13
years, a plan markets see as positive for the long-term
inflation outlook and for the economy.
On the other hand, Clinton proposed a net $250 billion in
tax cuts over the next decade, which translates to a gross $350
billion cut.
Analysts said if all of Clinton's initiatives sailed through
Congress, markets might worry about lapses in fiscal discipline
in the face of large federal budget surpluses.
The Congressional Budget Office reported earlier this week
that huge tax revenues engendered by a strong economy would
create a surplus outside the Social Security system for the next
10 years that would total more than $1.9 trillion.
Balanced Budget, Big Spending
Robert Stovall, president of Stovall/Twenty-First Advisers,
said that in the State of the Union address, Clinton "balanced
the budget in one sentence and offered an enormous litany of
expenditures in the next."
Given the balance between debt reduction and spending plans,
economists said the speech should have no repercussions for the
financial markets on Friday.
"I'd be very surprised if this speech had any market
impact," said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa
Securities America Inc.
Jones of Aubrey G. Lanston agreed the speech should have
"no implications" for markets.
Clinton's litany of proposals could look as if fiscal
discipline was being weakened a little, said Hugh Johnson, chief
investment officer at First Albany Corp.
But he said markets would quickly get over that notion and
"back to business as usual."
Plan Promotes Fiscal Discipline
Moran said Clinton's plan to credit interest savings from
debt reduction to the Social Security and Medicare programs
would promote fiscal discipline because it would take part of
the surplus dollars off the table and insulate them from new
spending programs.
As to Clinton's proposed tax cuts, the question is how many
of those suggestions Congress would approve, Moran said.
"I think they'll throw a lot of them away," he said.
One industry applauded Clinton's speech.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) said it
welcomed his call to enact congressional approval for Permanent
Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China and to increase
technology research funding.
Clinton proposed a $3 billion increase in basic science and
technology research for the 21st Century Research Fund.
"Congressional approval of PNTR for China means more
opportunity for high-tech trade with China and increased U.S.
exports," the semiconductor group said.