What recession?
Last Friday, the Labor Department said 268,000 new jobs
were created in the U.S. during January. But if you look
closer, the government's statistics really showed growth that
was even better.
Washington decided to reduce its so-called "bias factor"
statistical lie by 50,000 jobs last month. Those are the jobs
Washington believes - but can't prove - are being created at
small companies. So if this bias factor hadn't been arbitrarily
changed, job growth would have been a very robust
318,000.
Again, the question: What recession is everyone worrying
about? Job growth is still booming.
Here's more proof: If the U.S. continues to have the same
kind of growth we had in January, we'll end this year with
3.8 million new jobs. That will put the Bush administration
on track to create more than 15 million jobs during the next
four years - more than Bill Clinton could claim at the end of
his term as president.
We should be singing "Happy Days Are [Still] Here Again,"
not frowning. But what, you may be asking, about all the
companies that are laying people off? Could that be an
illusion? A media conspiracy to make people unhappy?
OK, here's the real point of this column, in case I haven't
bludgeoned you hard enough with my sarcasm: The
government really doesn't know what's happening in the
labor market. As this column has been saying for years, the
Labor Department's economic statistics - inflation figures as
well as employment data - are not to be trusted.
The irony is that Wall Street probably agrees with me right
now as vehemently as it disagreed during the whole Clinton
administration. Back then Wall Street needed to prove the
economy was healthy; now it needs to believe job growth is
so bad the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates
again and again and again.
Those Labor Department figures on Friday weren't very
convenient for investors.
Analysts pointed out that the unemployment rate - which
rose two-tenths of a percent - was the real figure that
should be watched.
One brokerage firm quickly put out a memo to clients
saying, "The employment data that [were] released this
morning may be somewhat confusing," and went on to
excuse the strong job growth as a seasonal aberration.
But the financial markets just weren't buying it. As I've said
in previous columns, the markets have been pushing interest
rates higher ever since the Fed first tried to reduce
borrowing costs in early January.
Rates cooperated for two days last week after the second
cut by the Fed, pushing borrowing costs about halfway
back down to where they'd been in December.
Then came Friday's numbers. The real story was in bonds,
where interest rates shot back up to where they'd been
before Alan Greenspan's panicky two rate cuts.
For all the publicity, the Federal Reserve's actions this last
month have had no effect on your ability to borrow money
more cheaply.
Forget the headlines. Mortgage rates are higher now than
they were four weeks ago, and after Friday they're likely to
move higher.
For what it's worth, here's what I believe is happening to the
economy: It is slowing rapidly. Without the stock market
bubble, consumers are in danger of being less confident than
they've been in decades. And inflation is still a problem
because of high energy prices, leading to what anyone old
enough can remember as "stagflation."
Washington, however, doesn't have a clue.
For more New York Post stories click here