In business suites and government offices
all over this desert capital, people are heaving quiet but
heartfelt sighs of relief.
After the Feb. 7 death of King Hussein, Jordan's monarch of
nearly half a century, some business and government leaders had
braced for the direst of potential consequences: currency collapse,
stock market crash, street riots, even a coup attempt.
Nothing of the sort occurred. Instead, even as it mourns
Hussein, Jordan has managed to hang onto what had become the
hallmark of his era: stability.
After a brief sell-off, the Jordanian currency, the dinar, has
steadied, thanks in part to propping up by Gulf states. The stock
market this week reached an 18-month high. The United States and
Japan announced significant new aid plans. And Jordan appears on
track to conclude a new three-year accord with the International
Monetary Fund.
"Thank God, none of the things we feared came to pass," said
Elias Farraj, assistant director of economic affairs in the Foreign
Ministry. "Now we can move ahead."
Following the king's death, any political or social chaos would
have been felt quickly and acutely in Jordan's economy, already
burdened by debt, pummeled by regional political rivalries and
struggling to shake off a nagging recession.
For now, the good news is mainly the lack of bad news. The
transition of power appears to have been smooth, despite a
last-minute shakeup in the royal line of succession.
Only days before his death, the king designated his eldest son,
Abdullah, as heir to the throne, casting aside his brother Hassan,
who had spent more than three decades as crown prince.
King Abdullah, a career military man, has almost no political or
economic background, in sharp contrast to Hassan, who had
surrounded himself with academics and intellectuals. Although
stunned by his sudden removal, Hassan has since signaled
willingness to serve as an adviser to the new king, particularly on
economic affairs.
That may be where Abdullah most needs help. Jordan's $7 billion
economy has been growing 1 percent or less a year. Foreign debt
totals $6.3 billion.
But hopeful signs are not altogether absent.
Hussein's state funeral, attended by a number of dignitaries
from Gulf states as well as world leaders, marked an economically
crucial rapprochement with oil-rich sheikdoms that were alienated
by Jordan's failure to join the anti-Iraq coalition during the 1991
Persian Gulf War. In a token of that, the United Arab Emirates made
a large deposit in Jordan's Central Bank to help keep the dinar
stable amid succession jitters.
Even so, serious structural problems are likely to plague the
economy for years. Population growth is outpacing economic growth,
dragging down the standard of living in a country lacking natural
resources and badly short of water and arable land.
Jordan's economy has been ravaged by U.N. sanctions against
Iraq, its biggest trading partner and almost exclusive supplier of
oil.
Unemployment, officially calculated at 15 percent, is probably
closer to 25 percent.
The prosperous-looking bustle of Amman, with its shopping
centers and well-tended villas, belies grinding poverty in the
countryside, and some within the city limits as well.
One elderly man who would identify himself only as Mohammed,
living in a corrugated-tin shack in a poor Amman neighborhood with
his family of 12, said his son supported the clan on handyman's
wages of less than $3 a day when he can get work at all.
"I don't see things getting any better for us," he said.
Jordan had hoped its 1994 peace treaty with Israel would trigger
an economic boom, but overall results have been disappointing.
Israeli-Jordanian joint ventures have been taking hold, but slowly,
and Jordan is sharply critical of continuing Israeli restrictions
on trade with Palestinians in the West Bank, which it once held.
"Frankly, we thought we would benefit much more from this
friendship with Israel," said Farraj, of the foreign ministry.
Under IMF and World Bank pressure, Jordan concedes the need to
open its economy and privatize moribund state industries, such as
its flag carrier Royal Jordanian Airlines, which is heavily in
debt.
Even as Jordan tries to attract foreign investment, its domestic
investors are sometimes unwilling to keep their money at home.
International observers also fault Jordan for not doing enough to
cut red tape or take advantage of its own highly educated labor
force and relatively low manufacturing costs.