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Having Weathered Hussein's Death,
Jordan Seeks Economic Revival

By Laura King  Associated Press
AMMAN, Jordan — In business suites and government offices all over this desert capital, people are heaving quiet but heartfelt sighs of relief.

After the Feb. 7 death of King Hussein, Jordan's monarch of nearly half a century, some business and government leaders had braced for the direst of potential consequences: currency collapse, stock market crash, street riots, even a coup attempt.

Nothing of the sort occurred. Instead, even as it mourns Hussein, Jordan has managed to hang onto what had become the hallmark of his era: stability.

After a brief sell-off, the Jordanian currency, the dinar, has steadied, thanks in part to propping up by Gulf states. The stock market this week reached an 18-month high. The United States and Japan announced significant new aid plans. And Jordan appears on track to conclude a new three-year accord with the International Monetary Fund.

"Thank God, none of the things we feared came to pass," said Elias Farraj, assistant director of economic affairs in the Foreign Ministry. "Now we can move ahead."

Following the king's death, any political or social chaos would have been felt quickly and acutely in Jordan's economy, already burdened by debt, pummeled by regional political rivalries and struggling to shake off a nagging recession.

For now, the good news is mainly the lack of bad news. The transition of power appears to have been smooth, despite a last-minute shakeup in the royal line of succession.

Only days before his death, the king designated his eldest son, Abdullah, as heir to the throne, casting aside his brother Hassan, who had spent more than three decades as crown prince.

King Abdullah, a career military man, has almost no political or economic background, in sharp contrast to Hassan, who had surrounded himself with academics and intellectuals. Although stunned by his sudden removal, Hassan has since signaled willingness to serve as an adviser to the new king, particularly on economic affairs.

That may be where Abdullah most needs help. Jordan's $7 billion economy has been growing 1 percent or less a year. Foreign debt totals $6.3 billion.

But hopeful signs are not altogether absent.

Hussein's state funeral, attended by a number of dignitaries from Gulf states as well as world leaders, marked an economically crucial rapprochement with oil-rich sheikdoms that were alienated by Jordan's failure to join the anti-Iraq coalition during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. In a token of that, the United Arab Emirates made a large deposit in Jordan's Central Bank to help keep the dinar stable amid succession jitters.

Even so, serious structural problems are likely to plague the economy for years. Population growth is outpacing economic growth, dragging down the standard of living in a country lacking natural resources and badly short of water and arable land.

Jordan's economy has been ravaged by U.N. sanctions against Iraq, its biggest trading partner and almost exclusive supplier of oil.

Unemployment, officially calculated at 15 percent, is probably closer to 25 percent.

The prosperous-looking bustle of Amman, with its shopping centers and well-tended villas, belies grinding poverty in the countryside, and some within the city limits as well.

One elderly man who would identify himself only as Mohammed, living in a corrugated-tin shack in a poor Amman neighborhood with his family of 12, said his son supported the clan on handyman's wages of less than $3 a day — when he can get work at all.

"I don't see things getting any better for us," he said.

Jordan had hoped its 1994 peace treaty with Israel would trigger an economic boom, but overall results have been disappointing. Israeli-Jordanian joint ventures have been taking hold, but slowly, and Jordan is sharply critical of continuing Israeli restrictions on trade with Palestinians in the West Bank, which it once held.

"Frankly, we thought we would benefit much more from this friendship with Israel," said Farraj, of the foreign ministry.

Under IMF and World Bank pressure, Jordan concedes the need to open its economy and privatize moribund state industries, such as its flag carrier Royal Jordanian Airlines, which is heavily in debt.

Even as Jordan tries to attract foreign investment, its domestic investors are sometimes unwilling to keep their money at home. International observers also fault Jordan for not doing enough to cut red tape or take advantage of its own highly educated labor force and relatively low manufacturing costs.

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