logo
Fri, Nov 17, 2000 EST
fundsnav.gif (2552 bytes)

Registration
Account Management
Site Help
Market Wire Home
Fox News Online Home
Live Ticker
Indices Chart
Click on index
for more information

Dow More Icon Than Indicator in Tech-Led Market
By Dick Satran  Reuters
SAN FRANCISCO, — Even as it brushes up against a remarkable milestone at 10,000, the Dow Jones industrial average is fighting to retain its relevance in the information age.

Back when it made its first close over 1,000 in 1972, it was an important fixture of the nightly news — but like the network TVs newscasts whose ratings have slipped due to cable and other new media, so too has the Dow's prestige. Both, it appears, are victims of new technology.

"The Dow 30 is now a much smaller percentage of market capitalization than it once was — primarly due to its exclusion of technology stocks," said Joe Abbott, market analyst for research firm I/B/E/S International.

The index has long been a been the showcase for blue chip giants: International Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N), General Motors Corp. (GM.N), General Electric Co. (GE.N) and AT&T; Corp. (T.N) are synonymous with America's industrial might.

But those giants have been surpassed, at least in investors' minds, by fast growing U.S. high-tech companies not even listed on the Dow. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O), Intel Corp. (INTC.O), Dell Computer Corp. (DELL.O), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO.O) all trade on the Nasdaq market and none was even listed when the Dow first touched 1000.

Add the value of those four Nasdaq leaders and you have a market value of $865 billion — while the aforementioned leading Dow stocks are valued at $725 billion. Overall, the Dow stocks represent just $2 trillion, of the $18 trillion in total market capitalization, said Alan Ackerman of Fahnestock & Co.

The Nasdaq companies, while still smaller than the Dow counterparts in terms of sales, are producing bigger earnings growth, and that's why Wall Street is rewarding them with a big market value.

While there is no rule that Nasdaq stocks can't be listed on the Dow, so far it's never happened, with the index comprised of big, stable NYSE-listed stalwarts. Dow Jones says it wants its list to reflect broadly traded industrial leaders — and it doesn't want it to be a "hot stocks" index.

But hot stocks are increasingly driving the market, with more small investors players than ever in the market. Some 7 million investors have gone online the past two years alone, and they are more likely to buy Dell and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO.O), than Dow component Alcoa (AA.N). Mutual fund managers, too, have found more takers for emerging growth and high technology funds that cater to growth- and high-tech-hungry investors than "stable growth."

"The Nasdaq is heavily tilted toward technology stocks and clearly those have been the energizers of the big market moves," said Ackerman.

But it's not just small investors chasing tech stocks who downplay the significance of the Dow. Analysts and economists, too, look elsewhere when they're tracking the market.

"It's not an analytical factor — all our modeling work and statistics are based on the S&P; 500 index," said A.C. Moore of Santa Barbara, Calif.-based Dunvegan Associates.

Charlie Crane, strategist for Key Asset Management, agrees, "The Dow is not nearly as important as the S&P; 500," though both Crane and Moore say they look regularly at the blue chip average as a "psychological indicator." It also provides a good "shorthand" for telling people what the market is doing.

The S&P;, though, is broader and more inclusive, with companies like Microsoft and Intel part of the list. The Department of Commerce and the Conference Board both use it for an economic indicator.

Still, some see the index of blue chips regaining stature if the era of the growth stocks — fostered by low inflation and interest rates — gives way to the more erratic patterns of the past.

Fear that the long boom might be ending, ironically, might be helping the Dow right now, said Harry Laubscher of Tucker Anthony, who notes that buying is concentrated in the blue chips and just a few hot tech stocks, but that broader indicators are deteriorating.

"The overall market's really been strong since the mid-1980s," he said. "But when the market starts tumbling, the better quality, blue chips stock like the ones in the Dow do better."

When the S&P; index went online in 1957, the Dow was already enshrined as the indicator of America's booms and busts and it remains the icon for Wall Street's daily movements going into the new millennium.

Marshall Acuff, of Salomon Smith Barney said, "You can argue that the Dow is not that representative, but you'll probably never read a headline that says S & P index up 2.2 points at 1,296."

More Marketwire More MarketWire News Top of Page


© 2000, News Digital Media, Inc. d/b/a Fox News Online
All rights reserved. Fox News is a registered trademark of 20th Century Fox Film Corp.
Data from Thomson Financial Interactive is subject to the following Privacy Statement
© 2000 Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved