Brazil's currency strengthened and
markets calmed Monday as a top official of the International
Monetary Fund came to Brazil to discuss ways to fix the battered
economy.
Stanley Fischer, the IMF's chief economist, is to meet with
Finance Minister Pedro Malan on Tuesday. The talks could expedite
release of the second installment of a $41.5 billion aid package.
In December, Brazil received $9 billion from the IMF and used it
to bolster its sagging currency reserves, now at $36 billion down
from $74 billion last July. A second installment might help restore
investors' confidence.
But first the two sides must agree on how to stabilize the real,
which has plunged since the government devalued the currency on
Jan. 13 and then let it float freely.
The real traded at 1.98 to the dollar at midday, up from 2.06 at
Friday's close. The currency has lost 39 percent of its value since
the devaluations began.
Panic gripped the markets Friday and Brazilians scurried to
withdraw their savings after it was rumored that the government
would freeze bank deposits. Such a freeze was imposed in the early
1990s, leaving many unable to pay their bills.
Malan went on television and gave his "word of honor" that
savings wouldn't be touched. "There is no possibility whatever
that the government would commit any such violence," he said.
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso attributed Friday's panic to
speculators in the futures market who profit when the real falls.
Currency dealers confirmed that some banks were pushing the real
down.
Brazilians and the IMF have diverged on the best way to control
inflation real. After reaching 2,700 percent in 1993, inflation
plunged to near zero last year but now threatens to return.
The IMF favors a sharp rise in interest rates to restrict the
amount of money in circulation and avert speculation. But high
interest rates will worsen the recession and the government's own
spending deficit.
An IMF team arrived in Brasilia over the weekend to review the
terms of the aid package. Published reports said the
Washington-based fund would likely urge Brazil to make deeper cuts
in spending to reduce its budget deficit.